Hormuz Tensions Highlight Fragility of Gulf Energy Exports
The current situation is notable not just for the volume of crude oil at risk, but also because it affects a wider array of strategic commodities, including liquefied natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas, petrochemicals, fertilizers, and helium. This underscores the Gulf’s central role in global energy and industrial supply chains.
Li-Chen Sim, an associate fellow at the US Middle East Institute, said the disruption is “unprecedented in both scale and scope, with no fully operational alternative capable of replacing the affected flows.” She added, “There is no operating workaround that can replace these flows because of the scale involved,” noting that even with pipeline rerouting in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, about 17% of global oil flows remain impacted.
Adi Imsirovic, a lecturer in Energy Systems at the University of Oxford, noted that emergency oil reserves could mitigate some short-term effects, but cautioned that a prolonged conflict would pose far greater challenges. “The problem is a prolonged conflict, more than a few weeks,” he said, highlighting that pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE that bypass the strait can carry up to 7 million barrels per day, while Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain lack sufficient infrastructure to offset the disruption.
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